While the sitting president’s party usually loses congressional seats during the midterms, emboldened Republicans strengthened by the results in Virginia now expect both chambers to not only return to GOP control but also present Biden with the additional challenge of a divided government. The Merriam-Webster dictionary defines “bellwether” as “one that takes the lead or initiative” or “an indicator of trends.” That’s the role Virginia could now be playing on the national political scene. GOP hopefuls who fear alienating moderate suburban Republicans are now able to follow Youngkin’s lead by downplaying their association with Trump while secretly enjoying the enthusiasm he generates among his base. Youngkin was able to maintain the Trump base without embracing Trump publicly. Youngkin maintained those numbers within 1 percentage point. In majority Republican counties in Virginia, for instance, such as Bedford, Frederick, Roanoke and Hanover, Trump’s margin of victory in 2020 was between 37% and 60%. Those poll numbers held steady on election night. Polls showed the race as a statistical dead heat leading into Election Day. Terry McAuliffe, the Democratic gubernatorial candidate and former Virginia governor who lost to Republican Glenn Youngkin, hugs his wife, Dorothy, on election night. Youngkin’s strategy was also helped by McAuliffe’s inept efforts to paint the millionaire political newcomer as a Trump acolyte. In Fairfax County – a suburban Democratic stronghold near Washington, D.C., comprising nearly 13.5% of the state’s overall vote – Youngkin’s campaign against critical race theory improved GOP results by 2.6 percentage points from the 2020 presidential election. It was a major blunder and became the subject of relentless campaign advertisements by Youngkin in the days leading up the Nov. Instead of responding to Youngkin with the truth, McAuliffe alienated suburban voters further by declaring during a debate with Youngkin that “parents shouldn’t tell schools what to teach.”
Usually reserved for graduate schools, critical race theory is a field of intellectual inquiry that demonstrates the legal codification of racism in America. It’s not, but that didn’t stop the spread of misinformation. Though Biden won the suburbs overwhelmingly in 2020, the Youngkin campaign won a significant portion this year by, in part, focusing on the potential that critical race theory could be taught at the K-12 level. Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images Suburban GOP gains Youngkin’s appeals to parents and suburban voters helped him win. By using national culture wars, and specifically GOP outrage over how race issues are taught in public schools, Youngkin took aim at suburban Virginia voters and sliced off enough to become governor.
The recent blue wave placed Virginia at the heart of national politics – and made it a GOP target. Before the election in 2008, Virginians voted Republican in presidential elections for the previous 40 years. Starting with the election of Barack Obama in 2008, Virginia has voted Democratic in presidential contests, including for Hillary Clinton in her unsuccessful bid in 2016 and Joe Biden in 2020. But over the past decade, Virginia turned from a reliable red state in presidential elections to a reliable blue state.
In previous elections in Virginia, local politics were just that – local. The election was a referendum on not only Trump’s influence within the GOP but also the Biden administration’s inability to deliver so far on presidential campaign promises. Terry McAuliffe launched Virginia into the national limelight.
Youngkin’s campaign and subsequent victory over Democratic former Virginia Gov. With the 2022 midterm elections less than a year away, the stunning victory of political newcomer Glenn Youngkin in the Virginia governor’s race demonstrated an effective GOP strategy that appeals to crucial suburban voters alienated by Donald Trump while maintaining support from the former president’s die-hard supporters.
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